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Contenders Or Extenders

First, calling to mind the previous post about Bill Belichick being so upset after the Rams game, anybody else wondering why he was downright cheery after the Giants game? The overall performance didn’t seem significantly better to me. Anyway…

If it’s possible for a team to make the playoffs and still not truly be “contenders”, I think that’s where we are with the Patriots. Bill Belichick and Tom Brady make the playoffs. That’s what they do. They’ve gotten into the playoffs in every year they’ve been together — except one. It’s quite possible we’re on the verge of

Contenders, at least the ones who win championships are great at something, and tend to be average in everything else. Last year, the New Orleans Saints were the best offensive team in the NFL, which made up for their average defense. The year before, the Super Bowl champion Steelers had the top ranked defense, which made up for their slightly below average offense. In 2007, the Patriots were the best offense and fourth best defense, and it remains a mystery how they didn’t win it all. In 2006, the Colts had a great offense and lower third defense. And the list goes on. Super Bowl Champions have a greatness about them, and that greatness makes up for minor deficiencies.

An argument can be made that the Patriots have a great offense. They ranked third last year in total yards and sixth in points per game. This year, Brady is a year removed from his surgery. The tight ends, especially Rob Gronkowski, look like viable options in the red zone. So, it’s quite possible the Patriots will have a better offense this year than last. That would raise them to the “greatness” level on that side of the ball. And that brings us to the defense.

Certainly, there’s a chance a Belichick coached team will rank in the top 20 or so in total defense. That’s where the Saints were last year, and where the Colts were when they won it all. That’s the formula. Great on one side of the ball, and good enough on the other. The Patriots could be both those things. So, they could be contenders. That’s where the optimism stems from. Brady on one side of the ball. Belichick on the other. And we’re ready for some football!

Problem is, the Patriots weren’t as good as the best teams a year ago, and nothing appears to have changed. Brady may be better, but the running game, Wes Welker coming back from injury, and an unpredictable and older Randy Moss maybe worse. And that defense! And more sobering than that is the fact that the best teams of a year ago don’t look like they’ve taken a step back. The Saints, the Colts, the Packers, even the Vikings, Cowboys and Ravens are stronger than the Patriots. (Notice, I didn’t even mention the Jets who should also fulfill the formula — great on defense, average on offense — but like the Patriots, they look like a notch below the best of the best).

Granted, the “any given Sunday” argument is a strong one, especially when you tie it into the Belichick-Brady argument, but on “most given Sundays”, the Patriots will lose to those contenders.

second exception, but it’s just too hard to come right out and predict failure for those two guys. And that’s where the bar has been set for them. A non-playoff season would be considered a failure for a couple of guys with more rings than Saturn. But Belichick and Brady are the only reasons to think the Patriots are contenders, and that’s probably not enough.

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